Extreme summer heat in Phoenix, Arizona (USA) under global climate change (2041-2070)

Susanne Grossman-Clarke, Sebastian Schubert, Thomas A. Clarke, Sharon L. Harlan

Abstract


Summer extreme heat events in the arid Phoenix, Arizona (USA) metropolitan region for the period 2041-2070 are projected based on the ensemble of ten climate models from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for the SRES A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Extreme heat events are identified by measures related to two thresholds of the maximum daily air temperature distribution for the historical reference period 1971-2000. Comparing this reference period to the model ensemble-mean, the frequency of extreme heat events is projected to increase by a factor of six to 1.9 events per summer and the average number of event days per year is projected to increase by a factor of 14. The inter-model range for the average number of EHE days per summer is larger for the projected climate, 10.6 to 42.2 days, than for simulations of the past climate simulations (1.5 to 2.4 days).

Keywords


Extreme heat events; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

Full Text:

PDF


DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12854/erde.v145i1-2.92

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.



If a manuscript is accepted for publication, you will be asked to pay an Article Publication Fee to cover publications costs.

Die ERDE charges a page fee of € 25.– for accepted and published articles to cover a part of the production costs.

This fee includes full open access to contents, no additional fee is necessary to allow everybody to access the PDF of the published paper. This means: you can freely distribute the final PDF, present it on your homepage and make links to the PDF from other web sites. In detail, Die ERDE uses the following copyright license:

Creative Commons License
Articles published in Die ERDE are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

In November 2016 the Editorial Manager has changed. Please address all inquiries and correspondence to Mr. Paul Stephan, paul.stephan[AT]gfe-berlin.de.



Archive

Since 2011 all issues are openly accessible via this link
Older issues (back as far as 1833) are also open-access available – via www.digizeitschriften.de